On August 30, 2021, the United States concluded a two-decade-long war in Afghanistan that had persisted since 2001. The US withdrawal, first declared in 2014, has gone through different stages with up to 3 successive administrations until reaching the final US-Taliban Doha agreement in 2020. How did the US withdrawal unfold? And what transpired over the span from the first declaration in 2014 until the take-off of the last military aircraft in 2021?
2014: Obama Declares withdrawal
In 2014, the US President Barack Obama announced that the US would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of the year, marking the end of Operation Enduring Freedom, the official name adopted by the US government for the war in Afghanistan.
Although a significant number of the US troops did indeed depart Afghanistan by 2014 along with the NATO’s International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), a contingent of 9,800 US troops remained deployed in Afghanistan as part of the Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS) within the broader NATO’s Resolute Support Mission (RSM).
The US contingent was seen as vital to train and assist the new Afghan troops in counter-terrorism missions. Thus, General John F. Campbell, commander of RSM, requested an additional 1,000 US troops.
2017: US strategy shifts under Trump
Under Donald Trump, the United States strategy in Afghanistan kept the course of boosting special operations forces to bolster Afghan troops capabilities to dismantle the Taliban. In addition, the air forces and artillery capabilities were improved along with a steadfast commitment to maintain the standing government in Kabul.
In July 2017, President Donald Trump made a military decision to increase the number of US forces in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan surpassing the congressional say. Trump’s Afghanistan strategy was unveiled one month later with clear aims: obliterating ISIL, crushing Al-Qaeda, and preventing the Taliban from taking over the country. Additional troops were accordingly deployed in Afghanistan bringing the total to a hit of 14,000 in September 2017. However, two years later, US military and government officials were reportedly believing the war in Afghanistan was unwinnable.
Meanwhile, an abrupt decision was made to reduce the troops in Afghanistan as part of the US National Defense Strategy to shift the focus from counterterrorism to confront Russian and Chinese power projection.
2020: The US-Taliban deal in Doha
In February 2020, the US diplomatic envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, and the Taliban signed the Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan that provided a 14-month time frame for a US full withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Doha-brokered deal was notably concluded without participation from the Afghan official government.
Committing to the deal, the United States reduced its military expedition in Afghanistan from 13,000 troops to approximately 8,600, with an expressed intention to further decrease this number providing that Taliban uphold the terms of the deal by preventing al-Qaeda or any other extremist group from operating inside Afghanistan. By January 2021, the troop count had gone down to 2,500 troops, the least number of US troops in Afghanistan since 2001.
On the other hand, the intra-Afghan peace talks failed to go after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, excluded from the deal, refused to comply with the deal’s call for a prisoner exchange. The Taliban requested the government to free 5,000 prisoners, while Ghani stated that the prisoner exchange cannot be a prerequisite but must be a part of the negotiations.
Post-Agreement Dynamics: Taliban offensive and abrupt US withdrawal
After the deal, the United States suspended its support to the Afghan military’s offensive operations, compelling a shift to predominantly defensive positions nationwide. As per the terms of the agreement, US military airforce refrained from attacking the Taliban troops located 500-meter away from the US troops, thereby granting the Taliban the prerogative to target Afghan military units.
From March 1 to April 15, 2020, within 45 days of the agreement, the Taliban waged over 4,500 attacks inside Afghanistan, 70% higher than the number of the attacks in the same period of 2019, killing more than 900 Afghan troops, up from about 520 in the same period during the previous year. At the same time, due to a clear decline in the number of attacks and air raids by Afghan and US forces against Taliban, the Taliban casualties fell to 610 from about 1,660 in the same period of the previous year.
The Pentagon spokesman, Jonathan Hoffman, stated that while the Taliban have ceased its attacks against the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, the violence was still unacceptably high, stalling the path to a diplomatic resolution, remarking, “We have continued to do defensive attacks to help defend our partners in the area and we will continue to do that.”
2021: Biden Administration resumes withdrawal
In January 2021, Joe Binden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the US would review the peace agreement to fully withdraw the remaining US troops from Afghanistan. Initially planned for completion by May 2021, the withdrawal timeline was subsequently extended to September 2021. President Biden confirmed this decision in April 2021, expressing the decision to conclude the withdrawal by the 20th anniversary of September 11 attacks.
The process culminated in the withdrawal of all US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. Although it was estimated that there would be a significant security threat after the withdrawal, the decision was made with the aim of refocusing efforts on other challenges such as China and the Covid-19 pandemic.
Following the withdrawal, the options of redeploying US troops to the region were reviewed. This decision was born from a 20-year late understanding that Afghanistan cannot be transformed into a modern democracy with the presence of the US military.
May-August 2021: The final chapters
On May 1, 2021, the initially designated deadline for withdrawal, the Taliban launched a major offensive, swiftly advancing against the retreating US-trained Afghan corps and capturing Afghan cities one after another.
On July 2, Germany and Italy pulled out their troops from Afghanistan, and the US forces evacuated Bagram Airport, the heart of the US military deployment in Afghanistan. Afghan officials complained that the Americans left without notifying the new Afghan commander, who was informed more than two hours after the US troops left the base. As a result, the base was ransacked by looters, before the Afghan authorities were able to take control of the airport. Fighting raged between Taliban and the Afghan government forces, with Al Jazeera analysts saying that the Taliban were “at Kabul’s doorstep.”
On July 8, 2022, President Biden declared that the formal end of the war in Afghanistan would be on August 31, 2021. Biden justified the withdrawal by expressing confidence in the capability, training, and competence of the Afghan forces to manage the country. However, it became evident that the Afghan military would be crushed before the Taliban’s rapid advancement within a matter of weeks.
By July 12, the Taliban had succeeded in capturing 139 districts from the Afghan National Army. A US intel report predicted the Afghan government would collapse within six months of the withdrawal, but the US military later revised this assessment, pointing out the collapse would occur much sooner.
In parallel, Austin S. Miller resigned as the commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, and the Taliban spokespersons, including Suhail Shaheen and Mohamed Naeem, issued statements asserting the imperative for the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan. The movement explicitly refused to engage in any negotiations until the complete withdrawal of foreign forces from the country.
On July 21, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley conveyed that approximately half of the regions in Afghanistan were under the control of Taliban. A climax was reached on August 15 by the fall of the Afghan capital, Kabul, into Taliban’s hands without any resistance. This pivotal moment witnessed the Afghan president fleeing the country, and the Taliban swiftly stepping into the presidential palace, taking over the seat of power.
The US kept approximately 650 American soldiers in Afghanistan tasked with safeguarding Kabul Airport and the American Embassy. Following the fall of Kabul, additional troops were deployed to facilitate evacuation efforts. On August 30, American military aircraft departed from Kabul Airport, marking the end of the American military presence in Afghanistan after two decades of war.
